Australia’s migration system is going through one of its most deliberate resets in recent years. And the interesting thing is — it’s not about cutting numbers. The permanent intake cap hasn’t moved. What’s changing is the shape of migration: who gets in, through which pathway, and what they’re expected to contribute once they arrive.
If you’re planning to migrate to Australia in 2026, or you’re already here on a temporary visa working toward permanent residency, understanding these shifts could make a real difference to how you plan your next steps.
Here’s a clear-eyed look at what’s actually happening.
Permanent Migration Numbers: Steady, But More Targeted
Australia’s permanent migration program for 2025–26 remains fixed at 185,000 places — the same as the previous year. On the surface, nothing has changed. Look a little closer, though, and the priorities are unmistakable.
Of those 185,000 places, 132,200 — roughly 71 per cent — are allocated to the skilled stream. The remaining 52,500 (approximately 28 per cent) go to the family stream, mainly partner visas.
The government’s stated aim is straightforward: direct migration toward filling genuine workforce gaps, particularly in regional Australia where labour shortages are most acute.
But Adelaide-based migration agent Mark Glazbrook, who has been watching these trends closely, said the success of the skilled program hinges on more than just who gets selected.
“If skilled migrants come to Australia to work as mechanics or in construction, for example, but they lack the competency and proficiency that local businesses need, not only is the migrant more likely to be underutilised, they still need to live in a house — but another migrant will need to come to fill the job the first couldn’t do,” he said.
It’s a point worth sitting with. Selecting skilled migrants on paper doesn’t automatically translate to productive outcomes on the ground — and the gap between visa allocation and real-world workforce contribution remains one of the system’s persistent challenges.
There’s also the ongoing question of where migrants actually settle. Despite regional incentives built into several visa categories, the vast majority of new arrivals continue to make their home in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and increasingly Perth. The policy intention of spreading population growth across the country has, so far, not translated into a meaningful shift in settlement patterns.
International Students: More Places, Tougher Checks
After two years of the government attempting to pull back student numbers, 2026 brings a course correction. The national planning level for international students has been raised from 270,000 in 2025 to 295,000 in 2026 — a clear signal that Australia still values its international education sector, even as it works to clean up some of the integrity issues that crept in during the post-pandemic rush.
Skills and Training Minister Andrew Giles described the 2026 settings as designed to allow the international VET sector to grow in a way that genuinely serves skills needs, both within Australia and across the region.
But the growth comes with conditions. Universities wanting a larger slice of the allocation will need to demonstrate meaningful engagement with Southeast Asian student markets and show real progress on providing secure student accommodation — a sore point that has dragged on for years.
Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia, welcomed the renewed focus on neighbouring countries like Thailand and Indonesia, but was frank about the accommodation bottleneck.
“It’s taking purpose-built student accommodation companies anything up to three years to get a project approved and commence construction. So it’s a long game,” he said.
A few other notable changes on the student front:
Exemptions from the national cap will apply from 2026 for international students who attended Australian schools, as well as those entering public universities through TAFE or recognised pathway providers. This is a meaningful shift for a segment of students who have already demonstrated commitment to Australia through their educational journey here.
Priority processing continues for students from Pacific Island nations and Timor-Leste, as well as government scholarship holders.
A new Tertiary Education Commission is expected to take over the oversight of student caps and university allocations from 2027 — bringing a more structured, independent layer of governance to a system that has at times felt reactive rather than planned.
Former deputy secretary at the Department of Immigration, Abul Rizvi, noted that the planning levels have produced very uneven outcomes across different parts of the education sector.
“Private higher education providers had by September significantly exceeded their planning levels. VET and public universities were well below their planning levels,” he told SBS News.
He also pointed out that public universities are now heavily reliant on rapid visa processing to meet their 2026 allocations — and that a significant surge in offshore higher education applications in September 2025 means those institutions are banking on both quick processing and swift arrivals to get close to their numbers.
Student visa lodgements dropped to around 427,000 in 2024–25, down from nearly 600,000 the year before. Refusal rates held at roughly 18 per cent, improving only marginally. Glazbrook noted that while there are many genuinely motivated international students, the system has also attracted applicants who see the student pathway as a route to residency rather than as an educational opportunity.
“Increasing student visa numbers will put upward pressure on net overseas migration. However, a bigger concern is the quality of courses provided and the utilisation of skilled migrants who graduate through these courses and obtain permanent residency, but then do not work in their nominated occupation,” he said.
Net Overseas Migration Is Coming Down
One of the headline numbers that often drives public debate around migration is Net Overseas Migration (NOM) — the measure of how much Australia’s population grows from people moving in and out of the country.
Following the post-pandemic surge that saw NOM reach a record 538,000 in 2022–23, the figure has been falling steadily. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, NOM dropped to 306,000 in the 2024–25 financial year — a decline of 124,000 from the previous year and the lowest level in three years.
ABS head of migration statistics Jenny Dobak described the drop as being driven by two simultaneous forces: a 14 per cent decrease in migrant arrivals (particularly temporary visa holders) and a 13 per cent increase in migrant departures.
While NOM hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels just yet, the trajectory is clear. Migrant arrivals in 2024–25 were only 3 per cent higher than in 2018–19, while departures are still 15 per cent below the pre-COVID baseline — suggesting the system is gradually normalising.
Glazbrook offered a word of caution about how policymakers interpret these numbers.
“Cutting NOM is important, but cutting parts of the migration program that drive economic growth and prosperity for all Australians should not be cut,” he said. “Cutting permanent migration does not lower the rate of NOM, especially when most people who have applied for a permanent visa are already in Australia and already counted in net overseas migration numbers.”
It’s a nuance that often gets lost in the broader public debate — the relationship between permanent visa grants and NOM figures is not as direct as it’s often portrayed.
New Online Support for People with Expired Visas
In a practical move aimed at reducing the number of people living in Australia without a valid visa, the government has launched a new online visa support service. The platform is designed to help applicants whose visas have lapsed to resolve their status more efficiently — either by reapplying for a suitable visa or arranging a departure, without having to navigate the slow and frustrating compliance processes that have historically made this difficult.
English Language Tests and the Immi App
Two further changes are worth flagging for anyone in the application process.
First, the list of approved English language tests for visa applications has been expanded. There are now nine accepted tests, up from five previously — giving applicants considerably more flexibility in how they demonstrate their language proficiency.
However, former immigration official Abul Rizvi flagged a potential downside: more providers competing for applicants could, over time, lead to some tests becoming easier to pass rather than genuinely comparable in standard. It’s worth keeping in mind when choosing which test to sit.
Second, the Immi App has been significantly upgraded. It now operates in 34 countries and allows eligible applicants to submit facial biometrics and passport information directly from their smartphones — removing the need to attend a biometric collection centre in person. This is a meaningful improvement for offshore applicants, particularly those in countries where in-person appointments have historically involved significant travel or waiting times.
What Does All of This Mean for Your Visa Plans?
The picture that emerges from 2026’s migration settings is one of deliberate recalibration. Australia isn’t closing its doors — it’s trying to be more precise about who walks through them and why.
For skilled workers, the emphasis on genuine occupation-based need and regional workforce gaps means that applicants with in-demand skills and a willingness to consider regional placement are in a stronger position than ever.
For prospective international students, the expanded cap is good news — but the tightening of provider standards and accommodation requirements means that doing thorough research before choosing an institution matters more than it used to.
For anyone already in Australia on a temporary visa and working toward permanent residency, the system continues to reward those who are working in their nominated occupation and building genuine ties to their community.
How ApplyOn Can Help
Navigating migration policy changes is rarely straightforward — especially when the rules that apply to your specific visa type, occupation, or country of origin can shift with relatively little notice.
At ApplyOn, our team stays across every development in Australia’s migration landscape so that you don’t have to piece it together yourself. Whether you’re planning a student visa, working toward permanent residency, or trying to understand which skilled pathway best fits your profile, we provide clear, honest, and personalised guidance.
Get in touch with our team today and let’s map out your Australian migration journey together.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute migration advice. Immigration settings are subject to change. Please consult a registered migration agent for advice specific to your individual circumstances.
