Australia’s political landscape shifted dramatically in February 2026 when polling revealed One Nation had surged to 26% first-preference support — up from 17% just two months prior. For the first time in history, the party founded by Pauline Hanson has overtaken the combined support of the Liberal and National parties.
For anyone planning to migrate to Australia, this is not just a political curiosity — it’s a warning sign.
One Nation’s immigration platform is among the most restrictive ever proposed by a mainstream Australian party. Their policies include cutting permanent visas from 185,000 to 130,000 per year, a program that currently represents a lifeline for hundreds of thousands of skilled migrants. They also propose deporting 75,000 undocumented migrants, reintroducing temporary protection visas, and implementing an 8-year waiting period before migrants can access citizenship or welfare benefits.
Even more alarming than One Nation winning outright is the indirect influence they could exert. When fringe parties surge in polling, major parties pivot. We saw this during the Howard era, when mainstream Coalition policies shifted closer to One Nation’s anti-immigration rhetoric to recapture voters. The same dynamic could repeat today.
Labor currently holds 34% support — a comfortable lead, but not one that guarantees immunity from political pressure. If One Nation’s numbers continue to climb ahead of the next federal election, expect both major parties to tighten migration rhetoric as a vote-winning strategy.
For prospective migrants, the message is simple: don’t wait. Whether you’re working toward a 189 skilled independent visa, an employer-sponsored 482, or a state nomination pathway, the window of certainty is narrowing. Each election cycle brings risk of policy change.
Australia remains one of the world’s great multicultural nations — but political tides can shift quickly. Your best insurance against policy risk is a completed, lodged application.
Act now. Plan strategically. Don’t let politics write the ending of your migration story.
